Amtrak’s newest routes are breaking ridership and revenue records, yet, their own models routinely underestimate ridership for new state-supported services. Why do these models matter? And how would more accurate models help more communities and states invest in expanded passenger rail services?
Momentum and excitement for passenger rail services has been building across the country, demonstrated by Amtrak’s newest routes whose popularity has continued to surge despite initial skepticism about their success. The restored Mardi Gras service, linking Mobile to New Orleans, has already carried over 40,000 passengers in just its first three months of operation, almost doubling Amtrak’s original projections for the service which had conservatively estimated 71,000 passengers annually. In response to a surge in demand for service, Amtrak even added a third car to the train to accommodate football fans utilizing the service for Saints home games. A similar case is seen in the Borealis route connecting the Twin Cities and Chicago, which welcomed more than 205,800 riders in just its first 11 months of service, far surpassing the forecast in Amtrak’s 2015 feasibility study.
These success stories are cause for celebration, but ridership projections consistently missing the mark are a problem. We believe that Amtrak’s new leadership recognizes the problem, and has recently begun to revisit its modeling. This is good news, because Amtrak’s ridership and revenue models have very real impacts on how routes are evaluated and funded.
Their forecasting tools, which are used to guide federal and state decisions about passenger rail, are outdated and consistently underestimate the true potential of rail services to the communities they could serve. They rely on a narrow set of assumptions, emphasizing population and distance between cities while overlooking other factors that meaningfully drive demand, such as tourist destinations, healthcare access, educational institutions, college and professional sports teams, and regional job centers. The result is a distorted picture of how people actually use passenger rail. When projections fail to account for these realities, new services are often dismissed as unviable before they ever have the chance to be seriously considered.
These inaccuracies have real consequences for the future of passenger rail, and measurable fiscal impacts. States are asked to commit operating support for new services based on projections that routinely underestimate the potential ridership and impact. When numbers are too low, state leaders may hesitate to invest, leaving promising routes unrealized. When ridership then exceeds expectations, as it has in the Mardi Gras case, the additional revenue stays with Amtrak rather than returning to the states that functionally overpaid to help make those routes possible. This structure discourages greater state investment in passenger rail and limits opportunities for communities that could benefit from expanded service.
Inaccurate modeling also shapes perceptions for communities about what is possible for their region. When passenger rail is forecasted as less viable than it really is, those projects are trumpeted far and wide in the media, and they can affect how funding is prioritized locally, as well as how the public perceives a potential new service. That means communities that could experience stronger local businesses, and better connections to jobs, education, and healthcare lose out where they would otherwise benefit enormously from the economic growth provided by passenger rail. The Mardi Gras train has already spurred new development along the route, with areas around the stops experiencing revitalization in the form of new restaurants and vacation rentals. Similar stories of the impact of passenger rail can be seen in cities big and small across the country, ranging from New York City to Meridian, Mississippi and Ardmore, Oklahoma. Investments in passenger rail can drive local economic development in a region through public and private investments that fuel real estate development, tourism, and downtown revitalization. When modeling fails to capture this potential, those returns never have a chance to materialize.
That’s why T4A and its partners, including Big Sky Passenger Rail Authority, City of Mobile, Environmental Law & Policy Center, the Rail Passengers Association, and the Southern Rail Commission, are calling on Congress to take action. Our letter urges Congress to consider taking three proposed actions to bring transparency and fairness to their modeling process:
- Hold a hearing in the House and Senate to have Amtrak explain how they are improving their modeling practices to ensure confidence around how they are created and used.
- Include language in the pending FY26 Appropriations legislation that would fund Amtrak to update and modernize its modeling approach.
- Create supportive policies in surface transportation reauthorization legislation, such as a recapture mechanism to return funds to states when ridership and revenue exceeds projections.
Fixing Amtrak’s modeling system is not just a technical matter but a question of clarity and opportunity. States deserve the best possible data when deciding whether to invest in new passenger rail service and communities deserve a thorough understanding of the potential economic benefits rail access can bring to their region. These are common-sense steps that would reflect the reality of expanded rail options within Amtrak’s forecasting tools and help states and communities make more confident investments.
The success of the Mardi Gras shows that Americans are eager for better and expanded rail options. As Congress considers the future of transportation infrastructure in the country, it is essential to listen to the national, state, and local voices calling for the information that they need to make informed decisions. By ensuring Amtrak’s modeling reflects real-world demand and opportunity, we can help communities unlock the full promise of passenger rail.
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